The new California

Weekly Standard

Whether he wins the nomination or not, Rick Perry’s August charge into the top echelon of GOP presidential hopefuls marks at least this turning point: In national Republican politics, Texas is the new California.

Back in the day—say, the 1960s through the 1990s—California was the jumping-off point par excellence in making a bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

The reasons were both obvious and subtle: With a population topping 37 million, the state is the nation’s largest. Since the 1970s, California’s huge economy has ranked no lower than eighth and as high as fourth against the nations of the world. Continue reading

Taxes and the Senate

Advancing a Free Society

In the debt-limit debate, we’ve been hearing a lot about how a “grand bargain”-style solution with tax increases can’t pass the GOP-controlled House. That’s true. But here’s the issue that’s being neglected: Can a tax increase pass the Democratic majority Senate? Without a realistic possibility of Senate support for tax hikes, the whole revenue side of the discussion ceaselessly promoted by the White House dissolves into meaninglessness.

The problem is electoral politics. Democrats have 23 Senate seats up in 2012, counting the two independents who caucus with them. The GOP has 10. Of the 23, as of now six are retiring. That leaves 17 who will be facing the voters in bids for re-election. Continue reading

Wanted: Muammar Qaddafi

Advancing a Free Society

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has now issued an arrest warrant – the equivalent of an indictment in the U.S. system — against Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi for crimes against humanity in his efforts to suppress the rebellion that threatens to topple his appalling regime. The Court also issued warrants for his son Saif, and for the head of his secret police.

It’s the second time the ICC has issued a warrant for a sitting head of state. The first was Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, for genocide in Darfur.

By themselves, the warrants won’t change much in Libya, where the conflict rages on. The ICC has no marshal service to dispatch to haul suspects in. The Bashir warrant was issued in 2009, and he remains firmly ensconced in Khartoum. The pursuit of legal accountability for mass atrocities across international borders rarely moves quickly. Ratko Mladic, wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) on charges of genocide against ethnic Bosnians in Serbia, was on the loose for more than 15 years before his arrest this May. Continue reading

What allies are worth

Advancing a Free Society

Council on Foreign Relations President Richard N. Haass, writing in the Washington Post Sunday on “Why Europe No Longer Matters,” asks an impertinent but pertinent question: “If NATO didn’t exist today, would anyone feel compelled to create it?” His answer is no.

He’s right in a narrow sense: A “North Atlantic” military alliance wouldn’t make a lot of sense as a startup these days. The specifically geographical component of the alliance has its origin in the Soviet threat. Whatever you think of Russia’s authoritarian drift, Moscow poses nothing like the danger it once did.

The more interesting question is whether the United States, the most powerful nation in the world, would want to be part of a broad-based collective-security institution with the defining feature of NATO’s Article V, which commits members to regard an attack on one as an attack on all. I think the answer there is yes. Continue reading

Obama in the abstract

Weekly Standard

Let’s assume that it was not President Obama’s intention for the final section of his big Mideast speech, in which he took up the subject of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to entirely overwhelm everything he had just said in support of democratization and the “universal rights” of those living in the region.

Of course, that’s exactly what happened when the fateful words “1967 lines” passed his lips. Nor is it inconceivable that Obama​—​after taking a large (if unacknowledged) step in the direction of the “freedom agenda” of George W. Bush in the rest of the speech​—​wanted to end on a somewhat emphatic note of vive la différence.

But the more likely explanation is simply that Obama sees the Israeli occupation of the West Bank in the context of the full panoply of repression in the Middle East—that is, as contrary to “the broader aspirations of ordinary people” throughout the region. In this light, one can’t really talk about what has been happening in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and elsewhere without also mentioning the plight of the Palestinians, who have been “suffering the humiliation of occupation, and never living in a nation of their own.” Continue reading

Budget gamesmanship

Weekly Standard

There’s a truism of budgeting that goes: The player who makes the first move always loses. That’s because the player with the second move has the opportunity to focus on the drawbacks of what the first player proposed. It’s one reason why some Republicans were nervous about House GOP budget chairman Paul Ryan’s determination to release a detailed, long-range proposal to curb spending, including cost-cutting reforms to major entitlement programs. Here was an opening for Obama to counter—as he did last week, to the evident delight of his liberal base.

In this case, however, budgetary game theory is being wrongly applied. The Ryan proposal was not, in fact, the first move. The first move was Obama’s February budget submission—the one that portrayed trillion-dollar deficits dancing toward an infinite horizon to the tune of “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.” Continue reading

The U.N. effect

Weekly Standard

For those who care about “international legitimacy,” the gold standard is a United Nations Security Council resolution. The Obama foreign policy team as a whole has been obsessed with legitimacy since the White House was merely a gleam in the eye of the junior senator from Illinois. Indeed, the administration’s sense of amour propre is grounded in no small measure in feelings of superiority about its care for and cultivation of legitimacy, especially in contrast with its cowboy-unilateralist predecessor. So it is that Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973 form the backdrop for our current adventures in Libya. Continue reading

The once and future liberal

Weekly Standard

Much of the loyal opposition’s response to President Obama’s new position in favor of gay marriage centered on the back-and-forth in which he has indulged over the years getting to it. He was for it; he was against it; now he’s for it again (not that he apparently proposes to do anything to advance the cause beyond his “historic” expression of personal support). In short, the “evolved” presidential view is of the genus “political cynicism”: On the eve of a major Hollywood fundraiser (and, hmm, a Washington Post exposé on Mitt Romney’s prep school bully-boy days), Obama chose to pander to a group that was feeling under-pandered-to.

One reason for this line of attack on Obama was surely a level of GOP discomfort with the issue. In politics, if you can tag somebody for hypocrisy or flip-flopping, you are relieved of the responsibility of taking a substantive stand. On this issue, it’s mainly only religious conservatives who are willing to give voice to the viewpoint underlying, for example, the North Carolina ballot proposition defining marriage as between a man and a woman, which was approved 61-39 the day before the president’s announcement. Others are wary, and increasingly so, of implying that gay or lesbian coupledom is deficient. Continue reading

The do-nothing president

Weekly Standard

In his underdog bid to retain the presidency in 1948, Harry Truman ran hard against the “Do-Nothing Congress,” so much so that his put-down of the Republicans who controlled Capitol Hill became a permanent part of the political lexicon, far more resonant today than anything Truman ever said about his Republican opponent for the White House, Thomas Dewey.

Since a Democrat is once again in the Oval Office facing down a GOP-controlled House, some have broached the possibility of Barack Obama’s doing a reprise of Truman’s theme in 2012 and taking on, once again, a do-nothing Congress. Continue reading

The coming attack on Iran

Weekly Standard

The United States and Iran have been on a collision course since the Iranian revolution in 1979, when elements of the newly proclaimed Islamic Republic took U.S. diplomats and Tehran embassy personnel hostage. U.S. relations with Iran have been bad ever since. The focus in recent years has been the Iranian program to develop a nuclear weapon, but the backdrop is Iran as a growing regional threat, not only to Israel and to U.S. and allied interests in the Persian Gulf region, but also to the many Sunni governments of the Gulf, which fear an increasingly powerful Shiite government in Tehran.

Meanwhile, Iran props up the Assad dictatorship in Syria, meddles in Lebanon through the Hezbollah militia, supports the radical Hamas regime in Gaza, and seeks to expand its divisive clout in neighboring Iraq, a task made easier by the decision of the Obama administration to end the deployment of U.S. combat forces there. The picture that emerges is of an Iran that is not so much aproblem but the problem of the broader Middle East, eclipsing even the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Continue reading